Final Two Miler & Shamrock Marathon Prediction
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Nothing special about today’s 2 miles aside from the fact it’s my final “run” before tomorrow’s Shamrock Marathon. I was hoping for a feeling of invincibility, for legs that felt rested and ready, but to be truthful I just felt sluggish. I’m not overly concerned and am sure I’ll be ready to race tomorrow. 11 weeks of training is in the bag and I can’t change anything at this stage in the game.
As has been normal for the whole month of March so far, it was windy this morning - roughly 20mph out of the NNW. Looks like it’s going to be the same wind speed tomorrow, only the air temperature will be a little cooler - 49°F at the start rising to 51°F by the time I should be done. I’m not one to complain and will take any conditions on any given day. Actually my best marathon performance came at Charlotte in 2006 where the temperature at the start was only 19°F!
Back to tomorrow’s marathon attempt. I’m trying to set in my mind a realistic goal. I was hoping to use the fine McMillan Running Calculator to help me out, but the web site appears to be down at the moment. Oh well, back to the drawing board.
If I’m honest with myself and as much as I’d like to be, I’m not in marathon PR shape at the moment (or at least I shouldn’t be). I’ve only been in training for 11 weeks and I just don’t have the long runs in my legs to stay strong and fast for 26.2 miles. So, realistically a 2:51:00 is out of the question.
On the flip side, I’m confident of a solid marathon run and my ninth consecutive sub-3 hour finish stretching back to May 2005, which leaves a 9 minute window of opportunity.
Okay, I’ve decided, I’m going to go for a fairly aggressive first half and see what happens from there -
13.1 miles in 1:26:30 which is 6:36 per mile pace
- If I can maintain the same pace for the remainder of the race I’ll end up with a 2:53:00 - 3rd fastest marathon ever.
- If I slow by 10 seconds per mile I’ll end up with a 2:55:08 - not too shabby!
- If I crash and hit the wall like I did at Richmond in 2007, I could still possibly finish under 3 hours.
- If I can take advantage of the predicted tailwind and speed up slightly in the second half - who knows?!?
All will be revealed tomorrow morning, but for now it’s time to take a nap before having my lucky pre-race meal of macaroni cheese washed down with a bottle of Guinness.
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Comments
Hey Steve,
All the McMillan calculations I plugged in for your last 5K, 1/2 and 30K times suggests you will be very close to your PR…1-2 minutes. That tail wind in the final 10K can only help!
Have a good race and see you out there,
Charlie
Hope you enjoyed your guinness, Goodluck with your race 2moro will be back to find out how it went